On the Horizon: February-July 2026
International Crisis Group, 20 February 2026
Ethiopia
What to Watch in the Coming Weeks and Months
1. Rising federal-TPLF tensions could descend into conflict in Tigray
- Acrimony between federal authorities and the TPLF will likely persist. The latter accuses the government of breaching the Pretoria agreement that ended the 2020-2022 Tigray war, crippling the region’s economy, backing an anti-TPLF insurgency and blocking the party’s registration for elections. Addis Ababa says the TPLF has formed a hostile alliance with Eritrea. In late January, the standoff turned violent. The TPLF pulled back its forces following a federal drone strike, but the incident underscored the danger of escalation. Even if the sides avoid further direct confrontation, proxy activity could intensify: the anti-TPLF insurgents get support from the federal government, which in turn accuses Eritrea of backing Fano militias in the neighbouring Amhara region with TPLF assistance.
- The TPLF could opt for military action to recapture Western Tigray and other contested areas, currently administered by Amhara with federal backing. Tigray’s leaders would hesitate before launching such an offensive, as their own forces are still recovering from the last war. But their attempt in January to seize the disputed Tselemti area indicates they have not ruled out the possibility.
- Adding to frictions, the federal government has refused to fully restore the TPLF’s registration as a political party following its suspension during the war, meaning June elections could take place without Tigray’s participation. Given TPLF control of the region’s interim administration and security forces, the federal government could not stage the vote without the group’s cooperation. Alternatively, the Tigray leadership might try to organise its own polls, though a similar manoeuvre in 2020 contributed to the onset of war.
To Watch: Tigray-Amhara disputes over contested areas and prospects for resolving their status; Ethiopia-Eritrea relations; intra-TPLF power struggles; electoral preparations.
Potential Consequences: Renewed clashes in Tigray could spiral into full-scale conflict, potentially pulling in Eritrea on the TPLF side and devastating a region scarred by war.
2. Ethiopia and Eritrea could return to outright hostilities
- Ethiopia could launch an attack on Eritrea. Abiy has made clear his ambition to regain sea access, fuelling fears in Asmara that he is eyeing the Red Sea port of Assab. In addition, he may decide that Eritrea’s links to Ethiopian opposition groups or its continued occupation of Ethiopian territory in the north are no longer tolerable. Until now, concerns about a protracted conflict and international backlash appear to have restrained the prime minister.
- Eritrea will maintain forces in strategic border areas and continue sponsoring proxy groups inside Ethiopia as a deterrent. But this approach could backfire, by pushing Addis Ababa toward direct military action, and complicate any hope of rapprochement unless Asmara can prove that such support has ended.
- The war in Sudan heightens these risks, particularly as the rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE widens. Ethiopia is close to the UAE, which backs Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). According to a 10 February Reuters report, Addis Ababa has allegedly bolstered its support for the RSF, including by building a military base in the Benishangul-Gumuz region near the Sudanese border. Eritrea has sided with Sudan’s army (as has the TPLF) and is strengthening ties with its key backers, Riyadh and Cairo (another arch-rival of Ethiopia’s). As these blocs harden, Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions could surge, complicating external mediation while reinforcing the use of Sudan as a theatre for proxy competition.
To Watch: Bellicose rhetoric traded between Ethiopia and Eritrea; military build-ups on both sides; developments in Sudan.
Potential Consequences: A major conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea could tip the Horn of Africa into a conflagration that drags in Tigray, as well as Sudan, Egypt and Gulf actors.
