On the Horizon: February-July 2026

International Crisis Group, 20 February 2026

Israel/Palestine

What to Watch in the Coming Weeks and Months

1. The October 2025 truce in Gaza will likely remain fragile

- Israeli attacks in violation of the ceasefire, which have killed over 600 Palestinians – mostly civilians – since 10 October 2025, are expected to continue.

- Dire humanitarian conditions are unlikely to get better unless Israel allows in agreed-upon volumes of aid. While food supply has improved, two million Palestinians are suffering from poor nutrition, inadequate sanitation, crowding and a depleted medical system, raising the risks of disease.

- The U.S. is pushing the parties to implement Phase 2 of the ceasefire, meant to focus on governance and reconstruction. But progress will face serious challenges, including ambiguities about the structure and ambitions of the Board of Peace (which Trump has tried to assign a global mandate); hesitancy among international actors about committing troops to police Gaza; Israel’s blocking of Gaza’s rebuilding; and the terms of Hamas’s disarmament.

- Citing a lack of progress in Hamas’s disarmament, the Israeli military could continue to delay relief for Gaza or relaunch military operations on the Hamas-controlled side of the “yellow line” – the boundary to which Israeli forces withdrew during the truce’s first phase.

To Watch: The volume/variety of aid Israel allows to enter Gaza; the degree of pressure Trump and his envoys keep on Israel, and Arab parties on Hamas, to advance the truce; Hamas’s terms for surrendering weaponry; the authority given to the Palestinian technocratic committee (created under the Board of Peace to deal with day-to-day governance) to begin reconstruction.

Potential Consequences:

- In a worst case, Israel may resume large-scale military operations against Hamas, leading to mass fatalities, threatening the forced exodus of Palestinians, severing the frail lifeline of aid and enabling Israel’s total reoccupation. The ceasefire’s collapse could reignite regional fronts, such as Israel’s confrontation with Yemen’s Houthis, and trigger increased violence in the West Bank.

- Alternatively, the truce may become stuck as negotiations get bogged down in the aforementioned challenges. Israel’s de facto partition might become entrenched, leaving Gaza in limbo and its surviving population destitute.

- In a better scenario, talks could see progress toward decommissioning Hamas’s heavy weapons, standing up an international stabilisation force, getting the Israeli military out of Gaza, loosening restrictions on aid flows and beginning reconstruction. Yet major questions would persist about the future of Palestinian governance and Washington’s long-term designs on the territory.

2. In the West Bank, Israel may accelerate repression and dispossession of Palestinians

- Far-right ministers are expected to continue establishing new settlements/outposts at a quick pace, revising laws to extend Israeli control, uprooting Palestinians and chopping up Palestinian land into ever-smaller chunks.

- Settler violence, having reached unprecedented levels in 2025, will likely persist with the Israeli state’s active support, threatening Palestinians with death and displacement.
The Israeli military may continue to employ aggressive tactics, including large-scale raids and airstrikes.

- Israel may continue policies designed at economic suffocation. It may keep withholding billions of dollars of tax revenue from the Palestinian Authority (PA) – the territory’s biggest employer. It could also cut off the Palestinian banking system.

To Watch: Approval and construction of Israeli settlements such as E1, designed to cut the West Bank in two; large-scale Israeli military operations; Israeli moves to cripple the PA; Israel’s next election, due in October 2026 at the latest, may see power shift toward centrist parties.

Potential Consequences:

- Israel’s moves on the West Bank are explicitly designed to render a future Palestinian state impossible.

- Even harsher economic strictures could push the West Bank into deep poverty and chaos, particularly if combined with the PA’s collapse. Over the longer term, many Palestinians could be forced to emigrate. While the immiseration of the population has not yet resulted in mass unrest, that possibility cannot be excluded should conditions deteriorate.

Disclaimer

Opinions expressed in this article remain those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of CEMAS Board.